Will China lead the world in artificial intelligence?
Paresh Choudhary, works at Transparency Market Research
China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI
Globally, there is a wave of artificial intelligence across various industries, especially consumer electronics and healthcare. The wave is likely to continue in the years to come with the expanding base of applications of the technology. The global market for artificial intelligence is expected to witness phenomenal growth over the coming years as organizations worldwide have started capitalizing on the benefits of such disruptive technologies for effective positioning of their offerings and customer reach.
According to a study by Transparency Market Research (TMR), the global market for artificial intelligence is estimated to post an impressive 36.1% CAGR between 2016 and 2024, rising to a valuation of US$3,061.35 bn by the end of 2024 from US$126.14 bn in 2015. The upward growth of the market is, however, hampered by the low upfront investments. The majority of companies operating in the market are facing difficulties in accumulating funds for early stage research and development of prototypes and their underlying technologies.
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Michael Wilkins, Research Analyst
China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI. Their massive investment in artificial intelligence has an insidious downside.
The massive potential that artificial intelligence holds as a key enabler of digital transformation in diverse industry verticals is a key factor bolstering its applications in various industries, notably in the consumer electronics and healthcare sectors.
The artificial intelligence market is increasingly boosted by the growing incorporation of machine learning in a range of automation-powered products and services that businesses are offering world over.
TMR observes that focusing on technology improvements in the artificial intelligence may be become vital for discerning players to stay ahead of others. Some of the top players with sizeable shares in the global artificial intelligence market are Google Inc., IBM Corporation, Brighterion Inc., Next IT Corporation, and IntelliResponse Systems Inc.
TMR观察到，专注于人工智能技术的改进，对于独具慧眼的企业保持领先地位可能至关重要。在全球人工智能市场占有相当大份额的顶级公司有：谷歌、IBM、Brighterion、Next IT Corporation和IntelliResponse Systems。
Sumit Agarwal, Packaging Engineer (2014-present)
China will be the world’s dominant player in artificial intelligence by 2030. China is intent on overtaking the US to lead the world in AI.
China and the United States are neck-and-neck in a technology race that could define the future of the economy. China is expected to have high CAGR and can have upto $ 1 trillion economy in AI by 2030.
In the next few years the usage of artificial intelligence is anticipated to spread out to other business areas as well and thus the market will gain more revenue in the coming years.
- A. Rehl, Human-Level AGI & Cognitive Theory Research (2013-present)
Well, let’s see. I am currently the world’s leading scientist in human-level machine intelligence. Let me check the mirror. No, I don’t look Chinese. Let me look outside. No, I’m not in China. Let me check my files. I have several years and hundreds of pages of research that have remain unpublished due to the election. It’s several decades ahead of what people (including those in China) think is cutting edge today. In contrast, China has journal articles that are overflowing with plagiarism and faked results.
The real questions are how long it will take China to catch up once the files are published, and if the US will cripple its own future research efforts by electing more incompetent Republican fools like Trump. However, even if American voters can’t get over their Fox addiction, I can’t see how China could pull ahead of western Europe without help, maybe from Japan and India.
Jan Krikke, Studied Chinese influence on modern world
If we distinguish between research and application, we could probably assume the US will lead in the former for the time being, but China is likely to lead in the latter within a decade or sooner. The following is from my recent article on Chinaese AI:
As “the factory of the world,” China makes many of the components that will fuel the AI revolution, including the “Internet of Things.” Not prone to existential deliberations, Chinese companies will focus on practical applications, off-the-shelf AI systems for specific domains ranging from self-driving cars to medical applications. Using their enormous economies of scale, these systems will be tested in China but may set global standards in the process. The power that comes from being the world’s largest hardware producer and having massive volumes of data on more than a billion people who share the same language and worldview can only be imagined.
The Chinese are not given to speculations about AGI being the last human technology before robots with superior intelligence take over and decide our faith. A Chinese entrepreneur, asked if robots could control humans in the future, pointed out that intelligence comes from the brain, but wisdom and love come from the heart. To the Chinese (and the Japanese, who assimilated Chinese culture but also retained their animist roots), developing robots of any kind is simply a matter of reconciling spirit and matter.
Human qualities like wisdom and love can be simulated but not duplicatied in non-biological systems. The human brain is not merely a calculating machine operating on binary/Boolean logic. It is embedded in a biological system with both analog and binary processes, with organs, tissues, a bloodstream, metabolism and sensorimotor functions. The human biological system is part of energy fields in nature and the cosmos. If we consider the world of quantum physics – and the Chinese claim that heavenly and earthly qi influence human qi – it is clear that the human brain is not a machine with a reset button. It is part of a process rather than a thing. To replicate this entire “system” would be a mind-boggling feat. A robot with AGI of this level would make no attempt to control humans. It would greet its human master in the morning with a bow, in a sign of humility and respect to its creator.
Sean McDirmid, lived in Beijing, China (2007-2016)
Seriously, did you know that one of the first production uses of GPUs in training neural networks happened in Beijing circa 2010? But the researcher to do it was a German….
Likewise, plenty of Chinese are at the forefront of AI research in the states, as are many people from many different countries. While china has vast Human Resources to draw on, unless they start getting serious about foreign talent, no, they aren't going to lead the world in AI or anything else fairly technical. The USA however, has a huge advantage in being much less xenophobic. On the other hand, once they wizen up, watch out!
Anant Jain, Co-Founder, Commonlounge.com
Five factors are coming together in China that will make it an A.I. superpower in the next decade or so:
1.China has the lead in internet user numbers by country. According to FT, almost 800M users sent digital greetings for Lunar New Year in Feb 2018.
2.Chinese platforms are feature-rich, and hence, data-rich. Tencent’s WeChat spans various segments of consumer usage like photos, social networks, games, finances, etc. Alibaba is the e-commerce and retail giant in the country with data on searches, retail, payments, among others.
3.Compared to other countries, Chinese internet users are more willing to share their data. According to GfK Global Survey 2017 Report, China leads in percentage of people who responded that they are willing to share their personal data (health, financial, driving records, energy use, etc.) in exchange for benefits or rewards like lower costs or personalized service.
4.The Chinese Government is highly focused on developing AI. Last summer, China’s State Council issued an ambitious policy blueprint calling for the nation to become “the world’s primary AI innovation center” by 2030. It’s unknown how much China is going to spend over the next decade or so,
Moreover, China’s progress over the past decade shows that this is actually working. In the Stanford Question Answering Dataset, an A.I. prediction benchmark that researchers are actively competing on right now, Alibaba and Microsoft tied for the top spot in January this year. Compare this to just eight years ago, when in Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2010, another benchmark at the time, the top Chinese entrant was at the 11th place.
The United States is still ahead for now, but China is focused, organized, and gaining rapidly.
Tarry Singh, CEO, Founder & AI Researcher (2018-present)
Its extremely encouraging to see nations with huge scale, other than U.S taking a lead and bold steps in reinventing the future.
They stand so much to gain from the applications of meaningful artificial intelligence to solve problems in their infrastructure , healthcare, urban development domains.
Would be really great to see India too take on this challenge and make similar investments.
I really don't see this as a race, there are too many problems we need to solve overall.
Vladimir Arevshatyan, Android Application Developer at EPAM Systems (2017-present)
China always tries to deploy some AI and always more and more AI and robots are being produced, the reason is total global control and CHINA has a huge market to be able to deploy millions of AI powered machines…my fears…
Sunjeet Jena, A.I. Research Intern at Swaayatt Robots
Nope. None of the Asian countries will lead for at least for the next 10–15 years. The world leaders are and will continue to be USA, Canada, UK and Germany.
Andrea Jarak, Marketing Expert at Google
In the automotive industry for sure!
China is bullish about Artificial Intelligence (AI) and aims to incorporate the technology in different devices. Its plans about AI enabled cars are particularly ambitious as the country seeks to run 50 percent of its cars on AI by 2020.
While smart cars and AI enabled cars have made strong progress in the recent past, these vehicles have yet to prove their mettle in real life conditions.
The AI Strategy
China’s new vision was unveiled recently as a top state planner said that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is looking for public feedback to draft its national smart car strategy. The plan to equip minimum 50 percent of all its new cars with AI by 2020 is a part of its National Smart Car Strategy.
China aims to dominate global AI market by 2025. Equipping its new cars with AI is a major step towards promoting Internet of Things (IoT) where products of everyday use are made smart with the use of Artificial Intelligence. For forming a cohesive policy about the achievement of these goals, China plans to set up a national level team comprising the officials from the State Council.
The Holistic Approach
China has taken a well rounded approach towards the promotion of AI based smart car technology. With endorsing of AI enabled cars, the country also plans to make a major portion of its road connected to a wireless data network. Both these steps will ensure the development of a truly connected and smart transportation system.
Smart transportation system is a highly productive use of Artificial Intelligence. It is particularly useful in the case of countries such as China which, on account of their large population or small land mass, suffer from traffic congestion and high accident rates. As more people in China start using cars, further congesting the system, the use of AI may help in resolving many issues such as proper traffic management and safety.
However, it is not just about smart transportation system as China aims to grow its AI expertise in the coming decade. The country plans to be a pioneer in the field by 2025 while it also endeavors to master the production of world class smart cars by 2035.
Utility of Smart Cars in China
China plans to build world class smart transportation infrastructure and smart cars are going to be a vital part of that system. The country expects to draw tremendous benefits from its smart transportation policy. The use of AI in the car is vital for autonomous operations.
Such self driving cars are safer as they are less prone to make mistakes common to human drivers. Such cars also do not succumb to distraction, making them a safer option than human driven cars. Such safety is paramount in countries such as China which grapple with high rate of road accidents. Hopefully they are not hacked into though like we saw in Fast and Furious 8 and even that CSI Las Vegas episode!
China’s planned smart transport system will allow these AI enabled cars to communicate with each other, whereby these cars will be able to share information regarding the road conditions, traffic, and so on. Such sharing of data will make the traffic and transportation much safer by choosing better and more efficient routes.
However, such smart system has its drawbacks as well. Such systems are prone to hacks (as just stated) which may disrupt the whole network and may lead to massive loss of data and other resources. China is likely to keep such roadblocks in mind developing its smart transportation system and remedy the situation. In the coming years, China will be a force to reckon with in the field of AI if there financial system does not collapse but let’s remain positive here